STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS OF THE ZANGEZUR CORRIDOR FOR SOUTH CAUCASUS–BALKANS AND BALKANS–IRAN CONNECTIVITY
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The opening of the Zangezur corridor, within the context of the new geopolitical realities in the South Caucasus following the 2020 war, could significantly impact interregional relations, particularly Caucasus–Balkan and Iran–Balkan connectivity. Using realist and neorealist frameworks, the article argues that the corridor would activate the Middle Corridor, positioning the Balkans as a key hub for Eurasia transit and trade, enhancing energy supply diversification and security. This would mean significant economic gains for the Balkan countries, shorter and more reliable supply chains, and enhanced energy security, particularly through reduced dependence on Russian gas. Despite Iran's initial objections, the corridor's potential to foster regional stability and integration could offer Iran alternative transit routes, energy export opportunities, and participation in new diplomatic platforms. The Zangezur Corridor might appear to weaken Iran’s role as a transit country. However, analyses demonstrate that the opposite is also possible. A stable and integrated region could create new opportunities and prospects for Iran. These include access to alternative transit routes (e.g., the North-South corridor), energy exports to the Balkan market, participation in new diplomatic platforms, and the deepening of cultural ties. Iran’s benefit will depend on its pragmatic approach, which in turn requires the strengthening and preservation of the current reformist wing in power. Thus, the Zangezur corridor may create a win-win scenario for regional development and cooperation.